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Alvin Brown, Mike Hogan in Tight Race for Jacksonville Mayor, says Exclusive FCN Poll

2:59 PM, May 17, 2011   |    comments
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JACKSONVILLE, Fla. --  Jacksonville voters will choose a new mayor in less than a week and, according to an exclusive First Coast News poll just released, the race is close.

Republican Mike Hogan has a five and a half point lead over Democratic opponent Alvin Brown, 49 percent to 43 percent.  The margin of error in this poll is plus or minus three.

The poll surveyed 1,039 likely Jacksonville voters on May 4 and 5 and found several fascinating stories.

Men easily favor Hogan over Brown, 54 to 39.  The women break for Brown but only by the slightest margin, 45.99 to 45.12.  Nearly 9 percent of women are undecided.

Broken down among age groups, the two candidates are fairly even until the 56- to 61-year-olds.  Fifty percent of voters in that age group said they will vote for Brown while only 43 percent said they will vote for Hogan.  However, after the age of 61 the bottom falls out for Brown.

Voters 62 and older overwhelmingly said they support Hogan, 53 to 38 percent.

Taking a look at race in this race, 86 percent of blacks said they support Brown, who is black, while less than 6 percent said they'll vote for Hogan.

Fifty four percent of whites said they will vote for Hogan, who is white.  Nearly 38 percent of white voters support Brown.  Hispanic voters surveyed said they support Brown 51 to 29 over Hogan.

As expected those who consider themselves "very liberal" or "liberal" go to Brown just as those who are "conservative" or "very conservative" side with Hogan.

But voters who identify themselves as "moderate" are lining up convincingly for Brown, 62 to 31 percent.

Finally, 77 percent of Republicans plan to vote for the Republican Hogan and nearly 68 percent of the Dems said they plan to vote for the Democrat Brown.

The key to this race may turn out to be the 7.6 percent who said they have not yet decided for whom to vote.  With Hogan up only 5 and a half points, statistically, it is still anyone's race.  




















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